The future of Europe's aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market is poised for a dramatic transformation, and it's not just about fixing planes. With over 5,200 new aircraft set to take to the skies in the next decade, the question isn't if the MRO sector will grow, but how it will adapt to this unprecedented surge. According to the Aviation Week Network’s 2026 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, this influx of new planes will not only drive demand but also reshape the industry in ways we're only beginning to understand.
But here's where it gets controversial: while the forecast paints a rosy picture, it also highlights potential pitfalls and external factors that could derail this growth. For instance, by 2035, Europe’s in-service fleet is expected to swell to nearly 11,000 aircraft, predominantly narrowbodies, with Airbus leading the charge at around 55% market share. However, this dominance raises questions about supplier dependency and the long-term sustainability of such a concentrated market. More than 40% of these Airbus aircraft will be from the A320 family, further emphasizing the need for specialized MRO capabilities.
And this is the part most people miss: the forecast predicts around 2,000 aircraft retirements over the same period. As Dan Williams, Aviation Week Network’s director of fleet data services, pointedly noted during MRO Europe, ‘When airframe, engine, supply chain, and workforce factors align, we’ll see a steady stream of aircraft retiring from service.’ This cyclical nature of the industry means that while new planes are being delivered, older ones are being phased out, creating a complex dance of demand and supply. For example, engine MRO is expected to see the highest compound annual growth rate at 4.8%, driven in part by durability issues with engines like the CFM International Leap and Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan, which alone account for $5.1 billion in global MRO business over the next decade.
Here’s a thought-provoking question: What happens when new-generation engines finally overtake legacy fleets? Aviation Week Network data suggests this inflection point will occur in 2031, with shop visits for new-gen engines surpassing legacy ones by 2034. But are MRO providers ready for this shift? The industry will need to invest in new technologies, training, and infrastructure to handle these advanced engines, which could leave smaller players struggling to keep up.
Geopolitical factors add another layer of complexity. Fluctuating U.S. tariffs, inflation, and increased ‘political’ orders could significantly impact the market. Take, for example, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s recent tariff deal with the U.S., which included an aircraft order for British Airways and IAG Group. Such moves highlight how political decisions can directly influence aviation procurement and, by extension, MRO demand.
Now, let’s address the elephant in the room: Russia. The forecast deliberately excludes Russia, but what if its civil aviation market reopens? Williams bluntly stated that Russian aircraft are ‘dead to the outside world,’ meaning they would need to be stripped down to parts, re-certified, and reassembled—a prohibitively expensive process. Meanwhile, Russia’s desperate need for aircraft faces a global shortage of secondhand planes and reluctance from lessors to engage with the country. While this scenario seems unlikely to impact the forecast, it’s a stark reminder of how geopolitical tensions can ripple through the industry.
Finally, let’s consider Comac’s role in the narrowbody market. While the Chinese airframer has a strong presence in China, with the C919 positioned as a replacement for the Boeing 737 MAX, Williams doubts its global competitiveness. He argues that Airbus will remain the preferred choice due to tariff stability, relegating the C919 to a ‘second fiddle’ role in the Chinese market. However, in the event of a military conflict between China and Taiwan, the C919’s reliance on Western parts could make it a vulnerable asset. This raises a critical question: Can China truly achieve aviation independence, or will it remain tied to Western supply chains?
As Europe’s MRO market navigates these challenges and opportunities, one thing is clear: the next decade will be a period of unprecedented change. What do you think? Are there factors we’ve overlooked, or do you see the industry evolving differently? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a conversation about the future of aviation MRO.
